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Monday, December 29, 2008

Noble (update)


Commentary:
Price has been rising in agony. This can been seen by the rise in price which is accompanied by declining volume. Noble most recent peak (peak 2) is also lower than its prior peak (Peak 1). I have redrawn its intermediate trendline and price action would most likely to be capped by it. Short-term weakness is expected.
The above scenerio would be negated or less plausible if volume picks up strongly. Trade with care.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Yanlord


Commentary:
Recently, Yanlord did a fantastic run up from around $0.50 to a high of $1.09. Alot of people are predicting that this could be the start of a new beginning which could propel this China property darling back to its hey days. A simple check on its chart, however, suggested otherwise. Price action was resisted by its long term downtrend line and has subsequently retreated. Therefore, as long as price action is unable to penetrated and break up this long term downtrend line with strong volume, I will still be bearish on this counter and will short it when price gets near the trendline. Caveat Emptor.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Noble


Commentary:
Noble has been riding on its uptrend channel for the past 1 month. In recent day, its price action met with stiff resistance from its intermediate downtrend line and price action has since break under its uptrend channel line. MACD line has also cuts underneath the signal line therefore adding more weights to the suggested weakness.

Strategy:
Aggressive traders can consider short position if price opens/moves lower than today's closing ($0.965) . Price is than likely to slip towards MA50 support at around $0.90. A more conservative approach would be for price to move nearer to intermediate trendline before initiating short position with tight stop loss in placed.

Investment Logic

'Fire is the test of gold; adversity, of strong men and of strong companies.'

- Seneca

Friday, December 19, 2008

Other Logic

'Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.'

-Roy Keane

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Investment Logic

'The successful man is the one who had the chance and took it.'

-Roger Babson

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Midas


Commenatry:
Midas has been riding on uptrend since the begining of Nov. Recently its MACD cuts down from its uptrend line. Since movement in momentum indicators precede price action, this is a cautionary signal that price action might follow. True enough, price action cuts down and closed underneath trendline today (violation of trendline was given further weights with a strong volume day). A 2nd consecutive day of closing under the trendline will confirm of further weakness in the days ahead.
Strategy:
Traders with long position can consider taking profit or cutting their losses immediately.
More aggressive traders can consider short position. Immediate support could be around MA20 level or recent low of 49c. A closing below 49c would spell trouble with more downside momentum to follow.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Investment Logic

'I've found that when the market's going down and you buy wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy. You won't get there by reading 'Now is the time to buy.'

-Peter Lynch

Monday, December 15, 2008

UOL


Commentary:
UOL has been consolidating, bollinger bands tightening. MA5 cuts above MA20 and MA50. Price action facing persistence resistance at around $2.1. However, watch for the gush of water rushing in when the dam finally broke.
Strategy:
A strong breakout above $2.1 with strong volume calls for a screaming buy. Go with the flow of water. Fear Not. Agressive traders can pre-empt price breakout once MA20 breaks above MA50.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Li Heng


Commentary:
All time downtrend line intact. Short-term uptrend line intact as well. Bollingers band tightening points to possible explosive movement soon.
Strategy:
Traders should watch for resolution in either direction with strong vol and initiate position in that direction. As we are pretty near the apex, , price action could just simply drift sideway beyond the apex. As such, any movement beyond the trendline in either direction with light vol should be viewed with caution.
MA5 has cut above both MA20 and MA50. Aggressive traders can consider long position once MA 20 cuts above MA50. A breakout above the all time downtrend line would than be the most likely resolution.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Fear Not

Common sense and a clear understanding of market cycle must take centerstage now. What goes up must come down and what goes down must come up.

-Rem the Dot. Com boom? what happened after that?
-Rem the Sars scare in Singapore? Capitaland was 99c back than...did anyone bought it?
-Rem the crazy oil rush to $147? How much is it now?

So where are we now? It does not take a genius to realise the world is in some crisis.
Think critically, will a crisis last forever?

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

-Warrent Buffett

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Think Rich

"I always knew I was going to be rich. I don't think I ever doubted it for a minute."

-Warren Buffett

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Starhub


Commentary:
Todays action completely overshadown the past 4 days price action (Outside bar). Open high close low with high vol on a strong market day when STI surge 5.75%.
Strategy:
Traders who still hold long position on Starhub should consider exit strategy as soon as possible. For aggressive shortist, if price action drops below today's low, short position can be initiated for quick profit.

Friday, December 5, 2008

RafflesEdu


Commentary:
Break intermediate downtrend line with unusally strong volume. Short-term trend channel break on the upside. MA5 cuts above MA20, Price testing MA50. Confluence of Bullish signal.
Strategy:
Just go Long. Conservative traders can consider entering position on days of pull-back.

Trading logic

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting different results."

-Unknown

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Investment logic

"Never let a serious crisis go to waste"

-Unknown

SGX



Commentary:
After numerous attempt (5 times), 52 wks resistance line remains intact. The longer the timeframe, the greater the number of times it is tested, consequently, the more reliable the trendline is.
Short-term wise, recent uptrend price channel was broken down and conincidentally, this uptrend ends right at the 52 wk resistance line as well.
Strategy:
Aggressive short-term traders can consider short-position with immediate price target near tentative support line of around $4.40. Nevertheless, the low vol on recent short-term rally points to weakness and tentative support line is thus not expected to hold for long. A convincing break of price action above the 52 wks resistance line is required before traders can consider going long. One positive confirmation signal to look out for is if MA5 trends above MA20.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Reward yourself?

When you have a great trade, why not reward yourself for it? Depending on the size of your profit, you could take the family out to dinner, escape to a getaway retreat with your spouse for the weekend, or perhaps buy that new bronze rim set which you have been eyeing for months.

In some way, this help to reinforce to yourself that you have had a great trade and have followed your trading plan to the letter in doing so. It helps reinforce the positive and instill in you that good things can happen when you follow your plan.