Semb Marine

Havn't been doing update for the past months on a regular basis as I have just elevated my status to that as a father. However, passion for the market runs deep and here it goes again.

Blue lines - Long-term down channel

Green lines- Medium-term up channel

Red lines- Short-term steep up channel

Vol has been declining of late. Watch for crude oil to pull back and this might trigger correction/consolidation to lower band of green channel. It should resume its uptrend around that level.

My view- This is definitely the start of a new cycle ( You dont go from 1400+ to 2400+ and still subscribe to the view that it is a bear rally. This is plain obstinate). Im going long for positional trade, short for short term swing if steep red trendline is broken together with confirmation from receding crude price.

Updated STI chart analysis

Despite indices breaking above MA200 which signal bullishness, market is unlikely to break above major downtrend resistance line at around 2200 level. Very short-term trader can consider shorting indicies for quick profit at roughly current level. Stop loss strategy applies. Trade with care.

STI chart

Immediate resistant at prior high of 1946. For new uptrend to commence, we have to break both downtrend line 2 and more importantly 1. Can consider short position nearer to 1946 level with clear reverse strategy if break beyond on strong vol and good macro news. Market unlikely to break downtrend line 1 in the near future.

Rotary

Accumulate on dip along lower band of uptrend channel. Pirce target 50c.

Shorting opportunity for Blue Chips

Both DBS and Citydev present good shorting opportunity. Confluence of indicator of both MA50 and Long-term down trendline forming tremendous resistance. Both blue chips are likely to run out of steam soon and should resume its downtrend for this coming week.

Trade with care.

Celestial

Finally, it breaks up with some decent volume. Short-term bullishness. Resistance at MA20 and gentler down trendline thereafter. Pennies arn't going to run hard in this market, suggest Fast in Fast out for quick profit.

Can you really buy at the bottom for investment?

Many of us are holding out for the stock market to crash further. However, how many of us are able to catch the shares we want right at the trough?

If index would to retrace to 1200, would you enter than? You might tell yourself than that 1000 is likely. Before you know it, you will probably be chasing shadow again.

If investment is your cup of tea especially with time frame set at 3-5years, One should seriously starts 'batch to batch buying' as and when market plunge.

Go for blue chips though. Companies (esp market leaders) that can survive this storm will return the fastest and strongest.

CityDev

A trend is assumed to continue its momentum until it changes direction. Short-term downtrend intact. Cluttering just under the trendline. 52 wks low. As the saying goes, high gets higher....low can gets lower.. Today price action drops with huge volume. Shortist can initiate short position anytime just under the cluttering price action under trendline. Cut lost if price break up above trendline.

For long players, watch for breakup with strong vol and overall change in macro news around the world especially those flowing out from US. Take profit once price action nears longer term downtrend line.

Happy Trading.

Dow Jones Latest

Break prior low with extraordinary high vol. This is a serious warning to all traders who are still holding on to long positions. Both long term downtrend line and short term channel line intact. Index is expected to oscillate within the short-term downtrend channel. Any breakup of the channel will be capped by the longer-term downtrend line. Bearish view. Traders with Short position, congrats, action starting soon. Trade with care and discipline.

Kepland

High vol with upward price movement near key support area hint of very strong support . Price action not likely to break low of $1.28 in near future. Buy on dip. If price retreats below recent low with changes in key macro-economic condition, exit at all cost.

Trade with care bearing in mind overall macro picture or key indices movement.

Capland

Short-term wise, price seems to have found some support at this level. Upside price movement likely. Price breakup from downtrend channel and RSI cuts up above 30% line. Buy on dip. Cut lost if price cuts below $2.35 with strong volume. Go short if price action plunge below $2.28.

Happy trading.

SembMarine

As explained in the chart.

If price action breaks below $1.54, could head down to test $1.36. If $1.36 fails, could retest multi year low of $1.15. Happy Trading.

Dow Jones Update

'Interesting' triangle developing in Dow Jones. When triangle formation emerge, its time to pay attention!!

Triangle is a result of converging trendlines of support and resistance. Usually, trading action gets tighter and tighter until the market breaks out with great force. Buyers and sellers find themselves in a period where they are not sure where the market is headed. Their uncertainty is marked by their actions of buying and selling sooner, making the range of the price movements increasingly tight.

Finally, when a consensus in the market is reached, this is reflected as the price breaks out of the triangle. A spike in volume on this breakout would reflects stronger consensus that the stock should move in that direction.

However, do note that this triangle formation was not accompanied by diminishing volume and hence might not result in classic triangle breakout kind of of price action. Potential false breakout remains a possibility. Traders should keep themselves abreast of updated macroeconomic condition in order to reinforce the reliability of any breakout in the near future.

Success Logic

" I don't think I have any original ideas...I've gotten a lot of ideas myself from reading. You can learn a lot from other people. In fact, I think if you learn basically from other people, you don't have to get too many new ideas on your own. You can just apply the best of what you see."

-Warren Buffett

UOL

Chart 1:

Chart 2:

Anticipation of goodies to be handled out in Singapore's budget and US incoming president-elect Mr Barack Obama crowning have certainly given STI a good run in recent time. UOL did its fair share of price escalation but as expected, it rose just enough to meet its strong resistance at its long term downtrend line before toppling over. (Refer to Chart 1)

Taking a closer look at its shorter term action (refer to Chart 2), UOL annouced its intention to takeover UIC today and the market reacted negatively (Its not difficult to understand why). The volume registered today can be considered as high especially if one takes into account the trading halt for bulk of the session today.

Personal Opinion:

Technically, price action broke down from its rising trendline support. Price is likely to face further downward pressure. If 2.05 fails (which is the MA50 support). We could see price heading down towards the next whole number support at $2. Once that fail, price could continue to fall further with next support likely to be $1.90-$1.92. Bearish

ST Eng

This is a mini eg. of Triple Top formation in the making. Triple Top is a pattern very similar to the Double Top -- only that there are three distinctive tops rather than two. The technical target for Triple Tops is derived by subtracting the price difference between the top at #1 and the reaction low from the breakdown level. After the third top has been created, the breakdown level is the low created between tops #2 and #3.

Personal Opinion:
Rather than wait for completion of technical Triple Top formation which is form if $2.23 fails, Aggressive traders can consider shorting near resistance level at around $2.58. However, a closing above $2.60 with heavy vol should be interpreted as breakout from resistance and traders should immediately cut loss and cover back position.

Noble (update)

Commentary:

Price has been rising in agony. This can been seen by the rise in price which is accompanied by declining volume. Noble most recent peak (peak 2) is also lower than its prior peak (Peak 1). I have redrawn its intermediate trendline and price action would most likely to be capped by it. Short-term weakness is expected.

The above scenerio would be negated or less plausible if volume picks up strongly. Trade with care.

Yanlord

Commentary:
Recently, Yanlord did a fantastic run up from around $0.50 to a high of $1.09. Alot of people are predicting that this could be the start of a new beginning which could propel this China property darling back to its hey days. A simple check on its chart, however, suggested otherwise. Price action was resisted by its long term downtrend line and has subsequently retreated. Therefore, as long as price action is unable to penetrated and break up this long term downtrend line with strong volume, I will still be bearish on this counter and will short it when price gets near the trendline. Caveat Emptor.

Noble

Commentary:

Noble has been riding on its uptrend channel for the past 1 month. In recent day, its price action met with stiff resistance from its intermediate downtrend line and price action has since break under its uptrend channel line. MACD line has also cuts underneath the signal line therefore adding more weights to the suggested weakness.

Strategy:

Aggressive traders can consider short position if price opens/moves lower than today's closing ($0.965) . Price is than likely to slip towards MA50 support at around $0.90. A more conservative approach would be for price to move nearer to intermediate trendline before initiating short position with tight stop loss in placed.

Investment Logic

'Fire is the test of gold; adversity, of strong men and of strong companies.'

- Seneca